Ground Stops and Ground Delays
Written by knowdelaymadev on March 19, 2025
Ground Stops and Ground Delays
Doug Cameron (00:01)
Hi and welcome to the KnowEntry podcast from the folks of KnowDelay where we take you behind the cockpit door, hopefully to make your travel experience just a little bit easier by giving you the knowledge and most importantly some of the questions to ask.
So, today we're going to talk about ground delays and ground stops. It's something you don't want to hear when you get to the gate. had a quick look at the FAA website this morning. It's coldest January. And no ground stops right now but warnings that they might come or ground delays at Tampa, Denver, San Francisco, Dallas, Fort Worth. So, there could be some problems in train. Now here to tell me how it works is Neil Malone, Geoff Murray and Dennis Taylor. Geoff, maybe just start with just the difference between a ground delay and a ground stop. A ground stop sounds worse, a delay doesn't sound fun either. What's the quick hit on the difference?
Geoff Murray (00:56)
Sure, so, they're both bad and as we talked about in an earlier podcast, the big difference between a ground stop and a ground delay program is a ground stop program is immediate. It's generally the result of weather or an event that immediately impacted an airport and a ground and that means all aircraft destined for that airport, nobody can take off. A ground delay program is generally longer term in nature associated with longer, bigger, longer lasting weather events and they mean that an aircraft will be delayed perhaps by 45 minutes an hour or 30 minutes to its destination. So, if you were gonna leave it 4 p.m. Let's say and there's a 45 minute ground stop you'd leave it 4 45 p.m. Excuse me a 45 minute ground delay it means you'd leave it 4 45 p.m. instead of 4.
Doug Cameron (01:49)
We'll come on to who decides these, what's the surprise element for passengers? It's an unpleasant surprise. For crew members and planners, whether you're in the cockpit, in the briefing room or on your way to the airport, when do you generally learn that there's either one in place or one coming down the pipe?
Noam Alon (02:11)
Well, I would say. When it relates to weather. If we're talking about winter weather, we can usually anticipate them because we can see when the forecast is. you know, there's, as Geoff mentioned, there are lots of groups from the air traffic control center and the local airports and all the various entities that work together plan those out. when the weather actually materializes, that's when those programs go into effect. Usually, the ground delay program is one where there's a little bit of anticipation.
There's an expectation that the weather will arrive and things will slow down and so, the ground delay program can be put in place that way. It's when there's a little bit of a surprise, maybe the weather is a little bit worse than anticipated or arrives a little earlier than anticipated that you get a ground stop to basically say, hey, we need to, we can't accept the number of arrivals that we anticipated. So, we have to stop upstream, stop aircraft that haven't yet departed so, we can handle the ones that are already in the air.
Doug Cameron (03:11)
Then I say if there is a stop or a delay program in situ, is there a pecking order? Is everyone affected the same? Do big planes get priority to go first when a stop is lifted? How does that kind of work? Do you tend to fly international? 787s? Does that mean you get affected a little bit less, shall we say, than those who are flying RJs?
Dennis Taylor (03:35)
It's a mixed bag. would say internationally coming inbound, we're already airborne when this happens and so, we get in without much delay. It can have the reverse effect though for taxing out and they stop operations for a thunderstorm or something like that then we're affected just like everybody else. As far as big airplane versus smaller plane, it starts becoming the airlines making the decisions on which flights they want to
release. Geoff might have a little bit more insight on that or know them about how at the SOC level or situation control how they manage those type of flights.
Doug Cameron (04:19)
As one mentioned, weather's a good indication that you might be facing a grind stop or a grind delay. And of course, you can go across and subscribe, but no delay, and get some advanced warning of some of the weather and the ripple effects. But I mentioned I looked at the FAA website before we started recording, and there it was in black and white, the warnings of delays and stops. know, Geoff, I'll start with you. Who presses the button and decides that there's gonna be?
Either a stop in place or that it might, which is what the FAA website says, there might be one from lunchtime or whatever. What's the sort of decision-making process?
Geoff Murray (04:59)
So, the decision making is collaborative. It's not kind of a unilateral individual or pilot or airport manager who makes that decision. And most of the ground delays and even some of the ground stops are anticipated. So, the FAA controlled center in Washington DC, which is monitoring air traffic all over the country.
We'll be looking, for example, at, there's some thunderstorms that could develop this afternoon in the southeast. So, let's anticipate some ground delay programs in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, maybe Dallas, Houston, that kind of thing. So, they can anticipate those. Then they work with the airport manager to say, hey, are you in agreement that we may need to have a ground stopper ground delay program? And then the airlines is, as Dennis mentioned,
also, get looped into these decisions and the airlines will be informed, hey, we're likely going to have a ground delay. It's going to mean an arrival rate of 20 aircraft instead of 40. And then the airline makes their decisions on which aircraft are going to benefit from those, you know, from those remaining arrival slots, if that makes sense.
Doug Cameron (06:13)
It does, and no, know, inside out, that kind of, I'll use the phrase pecking order again inside an airline. So, how does that work? What's the operational thinking about who gets those precious slots if there is some sort of
Noam Alon (06:28)
Yeah, that's a great question. Just to follow up real quick on what Geoff said, there's actually a scheduled call.
Everyday multiple phone calls. Call them the TRACON calls. anyway, multiple ones every day. When the weather is good and nothing happened, those calls are very short. When there's more weather involved and all that collaboration that Geoff talked about gets discussed and that happens. As far as the pecking order, so, once the ground delay program is put into place, there are X number of slots and then it's up to the airline to decide which airplanes get the slots and which ones get pushed back. And ultimately, if the delays are significant, which flights get canceled. And what airlines will typically do is prioritize the flights that are, you know, the ones that cannot be, that are already in the air, right? So, those get in. Then you've got airplanes that, for example, you know, higher number of passengers or high, you know, important connections or flights that, airplanes that represent a flight to somewhere else that's really important, typically international.
And then as a general rule, the bigger the airplane, the more likely it is to remain on schedule or to have the least amount of delay. And that's just a function of overall revenue and how you keep the most number of people flowing through the system, which is what the airlines are trying to do.
Doug Cameron (07:49)
Okay, so, lots of careful planning, but how fluid can the situations be? Because again, I look at the FAA website, great source for everyone to check, but it's a possibility and it gives the timeframe. How often can that change? And I guess can they be lifted early, which every passenger would like if it says there might be one until five o'clock. Can all these stakeholders decide actually, because of changing conditions, it can lift it too. And you can all go back to...
Noam Alon (08:09)
Right.
Doug Cameron (08:18)
…to normal flying pattern. So, just how fluid is the situation and what can passengers do just to update themselves as much in real time as they
Noam Alon (08:29)
Yeah, it's fluid because it's a function of the weather and what's happening at the local airport. What I would say is as a general rule, you know, there's a real balancing act trying to be too conservative and lower the arrival rate, which will be predictable, but have a larger impact versus allowing more flights to come in, which, you know, minimizes the delay, but then might risk having to recalibrate and then surprise people with more delays. So, there's a real balancing act that the various, you know, constituents are trying to figure out. As a function, I think the airlines do a pretty good job, certainly as meteorology has gotten better.
The delays tend to be pretty manageable, but it is fluid. And I think the best thing to do, the advice we always give, what I do myself, I try to avoid that airport in the first place. And that's what no delay does, is helps you to avoid the situation altogether.
Doug Cameron (09:26)
Yeah, okay. Geoff, the skies are busier than ever. We've all read about ATC staffing shortages as well. But over the years of your career, has the system become more efficient to kind of compensate just for those higher levels of traffic?
Geoff Murray (09:42)
I'd say that the system, yes, in general has become more efficient. I think where it's becoming more constrained is at some of the hub airports because at the hub airports, airlines are trying to connect more travelers over those hub airports and that kind of thing. They can mean more volume, bigger aircraft and that kind of thing. And when weather moves through those airports, it can really gum things up for a connecting, for a next.
For connecting passenger. think, you one other important dimension to talk about with respect to both ground delays and ground stops is as pilots, we can also, anticipate a lot of those. No one was talking about looking at the weather, but generally an hour before we're scheduled to depart, we'll get our flight release, our flight plan. And many times the amount of fuel that we have on that flight release can be indicative of whether the airline is anticipating.
There could be a ground stop. So, you may be sitting on the ground with your motors running for a while, or you may have to hold and that kind of thing. So, you know, after the command center in Washington, in conjunction with the airport and the airline has made these decisions, those decisions flow to the different, you know, interested parties and the airlines will reflect those probabilities in the flight plans for the individual aircraft. So, that's also, meant that this system has gotten more efficient because that decision making is more distributed. It's wider known, just as you noticed when you looked at the FAA page this morning and that kind of thing. So, it's gotten more efficient, but it's still when weather comes up in airport, it can really gum things up.
Doug Cameron (11:29)
Hubs are obviously more affected. It may be tough for passengers to ride around a hub. Dennis, you have to commute into hubs sometimes. Has this kind outlook ever looked so, extreme that you've taken an alternative route just to avoid a hub even though you've ultimately got to get there for your own flight?
Dennis Taylor (11:49)
Oh, many times. I've, uh, trying to get to Chicago and sometimes Midway will still be operating. Not always, but sometimes they will. Uh, yeah, that's a good example of going to different airports when you need to. And a point you brought up a minute ago where it gets frustrating, I think for the, uh, customer is you watch the airlines when they post their times and you get a noon flight and then it's posted. Now it's going to be leaving at 1245 and then 115.
Doug Cameron (11:56)
Okay.
Dennis Taylor (12:19)
Because airlines don't want to get a time way out there because now once they put that in there they're stuck with that time so, you'll see these kind of rolling delays trying to you know they want to get their plan out as soon as they can but they can't post a time so, late that people show up and say hey you said three o'clock I'm here how did you leave at two o'clock so, it's a like Noam just said it's an interesting dance the airlines have to play in order to maximize getting airplanes out and get the customers where they need to be
Doug Cameron (12:50)
That's great, thanks Dennis, well Noam and Geoff as well. So, ground stops and ground delays are just a fact of life and the best advice we can offer is to check back, check back often, the FAA website. Don't forget to subscribe to No Delay where you can get advanced notice of some of what we might call the causal factors in these necessary for safety.
So, until next time, gentlemen, thanks very much.
Hi and welcome to the KnowEntry podcast from the folks of KnowDelay where we take you behind the cockpit door, hopefully to make your travel experience just a little bit easier by giving you the knowledge and most importantly some of the questions to ask.
So, today we're going to talk about ground delays and ground stops. It's something you don't want to hear when you get to the gate. had a quick look at the FAA website this morning. It's coldest January. And no ground stops right now but warnings that they might come or ground delays at Tampa, Denver, San Francisco, Dallas, Fort Worth. So, there could be some problems in train. Now here to tell me how it works is Neil Malone, Geoff Murray and Dennis Taylor. Geoff, maybe just start with just the difference between a ground delay and a ground stop. A ground stop sounds worse, a delay doesn't sound fun either. What's the quick hit on the difference?
Geoff Murray (00:56)
Sure, so, they're both bad and as we talked about in an earlier podcast, the big difference between a ground stop and a ground delay program is a ground stop program is immediate. It's generally the result of weather or an event that immediately impacted an airport and a ground and that means all aircraft destined for that airport, nobody can take off. A ground delay program is generally longer term in nature associated with longer, bigger, longer lasting weather events and they mean that an aircraft will be delayed perhaps by 45 minutes an hour or 30 minutes to its destination. So, if you were gonna leave it 4 p.m. Let's say and there's a 45 minute ground stop you'd leave it 4 45 p.m. Excuse me a 45 minute ground delay it means you'd leave it 4 45 p.m. instead of 4.
Doug Cameron (01:49)
We'll come on to who decides these, what's the surprise element for passengers? It's an unpleasant surprise. For crew members and planners, whether you're in the cockpit, in the briefing room or on your way to the airport, when do you generally learn that there's either one in place or one coming down the pipe?
Noam Alon (02:11)
Well, I would say. When it relates to weather. If we're talking about winter weather, we can usually anticipate them because we can see when the forecast is. you know, there's, as Geoff mentioned, there are lots of groups from the air traffic control center and the local airports and all the various entities that work together plan those out. when the weather actually materializes, that's when those programs go into effect. Usually, the ground delay program is one where there's a little bit of anticipation.
There's an expectation that the weather will arrive and things will slow down and so, the ground delay program can be put in place that way. It's when there's a little bit of a surprise, maybe the weather is a little bit worse than anticipated or arrives a little earlier than anticipated that you get a ground stop to basically say, hey, we need to, we can't accept the number of arrivals that we anticipated. So, we have to stop upstream, stop aircraft that haven't yet departed so, we can handle the ones that are already in the air.
Doug Cameron (03:11)
Then I say if there is a stop or a delay program in situ, is there a pecking order? Is everyone affected the same? Do big planes get priority to go first when a stop is lifted? How does that kind of work? Do you tend to fly international? 787s? Does that mean you get affected a little bit less, shall we say, than those who are flying RJs?
Dennis Taylor (03:35)
It's a mixed bag. would say internationally coming inbound, we're already airborne when this happens and so, we get in without much delay. It can have the reverse effect though for taxing out and they stop operations for a thunderstorm or something like that then we're affected just like everybody else. As far as big airplane versus smaller plane, it starts becoming the airlines making the decisions on which flights they want to
release. Geoff might have a little bit more insight on that or know them about how at the SOC level or situation control how they manage those type of flights.
Doug Cameron (04:19)
As one mentioned, weather's a good indication that you might be facing a grind stop or a grind delay. And of course, you can go across and subscribe, but no delay, and get some advanced warning of some of the weather and the ripple effects. But I mentioned I looked at the FAA website before we started recording, and there it was in black and white, the warnings of delays and stops. know, Geoff, I'll start with you. Who presses the button and decides that there's gonna be?
Either a stop in place or that it might, which is what the FAA website says, there might be one from lunchtime or whatever. What's the sort of decision-making process?
Geoff Murray (04:59)
So, the decision making is collaborative. It's not kind of a unilateral individual or pilot or airport manager who makes that decision. And most of the ground delays and even some of the ground stops are anticipated. So, the FAA controlled center in Washington DC, which is monitoring air traffic all over the country.
We'll be looking, for example, at, there's some thunderstorms that could develop this afternoon in the southeast. So, let's anticipate some ground delay programs in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, maybe Dallas, Houston, that kind of thing. So, they can anticipate those. Then they work with the airport manager to say, hey, are you in agreement that we may need to have a ground stopper ground delay program? And then the airlines is, as Dennis mentioned,
also, get looped into these decisions and the airlines will be informed, hey, we're likely going to have a ground delay. It's going to mean an arrival rate of 20 aircraft instead of 40. And then the airline makes their decisions on which aircraft are going to benefit from those, you know, from those remaining arrival slots, if that makes sense.
Doug Cameron (06:13)
It does, and no, know, inside out, that kind of, I'll use the phrase pecking order again inside an airline. So, how does that work? What's the operational thinking about who gets those precious slots if there is some sort of
Noam Alon (06:28)
Yeah, that's a great question. Just to follow up real quick on what Geoff said, there's actually a scheduled call.
Everyday multiple phone calls. Call them the TRACON calls. anyway, multiple ones every day. When the weather is good and nothing happened, those calls are very short. When there's more weather involved and all that collaboration that Geoff talked about gets discussed and that happens. As far as the pecking order, so, once the ground delay program is put into place, there are X number of slots and then it's up to the airline to decide which airplanes get the slots and which ones get pushed back. And ultimately, if the delays are significant, which flights get canceled. And what airlines will typically do is prioritize the flights that are, you know, the ones that cannot be, that are already in the air, right? So, those get in. Then you've got airplanes that, for example, you know, higher number of passengers or high, you know, important connections or flights that, airplanes that represent a flight to somewhere else that's really important, typically international.
And then as a general rule, the bigger the airplane, the more likely it is to remain on schedule or to have the least amount of delay. And that's just a function of overall revenue and how you keep the most number of people flowing through the system, which is what the airlines are trying to do.
Doug Cameron (07:49)
Okay, so, lots of careful planning, but how fluid can the situations be? Because again, I look at the FAA website, great source for everyone to check, but it's a possibility and it gives the timeframe. How often can that change? And I guess can they be lifted early, which every passenger would like if it says there might be one until five o'clock. Can all these stakeholders decide actually, because of changing conditions, it can lift it too. And you can all go back to...
Noam Alon (08:09)
Right.
Doug Cameron (08:18)
…to normal flying pattern. So, just how fluid is the situation and what can passengers do just to update themselves as much in real time as they
Noam Alon (08:29)
Yeah, it's fluid because it's a function of the weather and what's happening at the local airport. What I would say is as a general rule, you know, there's a real balancing act trying to be too conservative and lower the arrival rate, which will be predictable, but have a larger impact versus allowing more flights to come in, which, you know, minimizes the delay, but then might risk having to recalibrate and then surprise people with more delays. So, there's a real balancing act that the various, you know, constituents are trying to figure out. As a function, I think the airlines do a pretty good job, certainly as meteorology has gotten better.
The delays tend to be pretty manageable, but it is fluid. And I think the best thing to do, the advice we always give, what I do myself, I try to avoid that airport in the first place. And that's what no delay does, is helps you to avoid the situation altogether.
Doug Cameron (09:26)
Yeah, okay. Geoff, the skies are busier than ever. We've all read about ATC staffing shortages as well. But over the years of your career, has the system become more efficient to kind of compensate just for those higher levels of traffic?
Geoff Murray (09:42)
I'd say that the system, yes, in general has become more efficient. I think where it's becoming more constrained is at some of the hub airports because at the hub airports, airlines are trying to connect more travelers over those hub airports and that kind of thing. They can mean more volume, bigger aircraft and that kind of thing. And when weather moves through those airports, it can really gum things up for a connecting, for a next.
For connecting passenger. think, you one other important dimension to talk about with respect to both ground delays and ground stops is as pilots, we can also, anticipate a lot of those. No one was talking about looking at the weather, but generally an hour before we're scheduled to depart, we'll get our flight release, our flight plan. And many times the amount of fuel that we have on that flight release can be indicative of whether the airline is anticipating.
There could be a ground stop. So, you may be sitting on the ground with your motors running for a while, or you may have to hold and that kind of thing. So, you know, after the command center in Washington, in conjunction with the airport and the airline has made these decisions, those decisions flow to the different, you know, interested parties and the airlines will reflect those probabilities in the flight plans for the individual aircraft. So, that's also, meant that this system has gotten more efficient because that decision making is more distributed. It's wider known, just as you noticed when you looked at the FAA page this morning and that kind of thing. So, it's gotten more efficient, but it's still when weather comes up in airport, it can really gum things up.
Doug Cameron (11:29)
Hubs are obviously more affected. It may be tough for passengers to ride around a hub. Dennis, you have to commute into hubs sometimes. Has this kind outlook ever looked so, extreme that you've taken an alternative route just to avoid a hub even though you've ultimately got to get there for your own flight?
Dennis Taylor (11:49)
Oh, many times. I've, uh, trying to get to Chicago and sometimes Midway will still be operating. Not always, but sometimes they will. Uh, yeah, that's a good example of going to different airports when you need to. And a point you brought up a minute ago where it gets frustrating, I think for the, uh, customer is you watch the airlines when they post their times and you get a noon flight and then it's posted. Now it's going to be leaving at 1245 and then 115.
Doug Cameron (11:56)
Okay.
Dennis Taylor (12:19)
Because airlines don't want to get a time way out there because now once they put that in there they're stuck with that time so, you'll see these kind of rolling delays trying to you know they want to get their plan out as soon as they can but they can't post a time so, late that people show up and say hey you said three o'clock I'm here how did you leave at two o'clock so, it's a like Noam just said it's an interesting dance the airlines have to play in order to maximize getting airplanes out and get the customers where they need to be
Doug Cameron (12:50)
That's great, thanks Dennis, well Noam and Geoff as well. So, ground stops and ground delays are just a fact of life and the best advice we can offer is to check back, check back often, the FAA website. Don't forget to subscribe to No Delay where you can get advanced notice of some of what we might call the causal factors in these necessary for safety.
So, until next time, gentlemen, thanks very much.